London Playbook PM: Lammy’s big Gaza move

Good afternoon. This is Andrew McDonald, with Sam Blewett.
— The government is banning some arms exports to Israel. It isn’t a complete weapons embargo.
— Scoop: the public tend to back a ban on arms sales, polling reveals.
— Kemi Badenoch and James Cleverly launched their campaigns for the Tory leadership.
— Keir Starmer’s aides forgot to wish him a happy birthday.
— But in happier news, the Starmer family is getting a new cat.
**A message from Lloyds Banking Group: At Lloyds Banking Group, we believe everyone deserves a safe place to call home. That’s why we’re calling for one million more homes at social rent over the next decade. Learn more here.**
POLITICS IS DEFINITELY BACK: Parliament is well and truly back from its summer slumber — and the government marked the occasion with a big announcement on arms sales to Israel just moments ago.
In the Commons: Playbook PM watched on from the Commons press seats as Foreign Secretary David Lammy announced the latest shift in Britain’s policy on the conflict in Gaza — a suspension of some arms sales to Israel, but one that stops short of a blanket export ban. A half-empty Commons watched on mostly in silence.
The detail: Lammy announced that 30 licenses, including components for fighter planes, helicopters and drones will be immediately put on hold. The move was made following the review commissioned by Labour after its July election, which concluded that there have been possible breaches on humanitarian access and the treatment of detainees.
However: Insufficient evidence was found to rule on further breaches based on how Israel has conducted its post-Oct. 7 campaign — but the government assessment did determine that the number of civilian deaths and the scale of the destruction caused great concern, top colleague Sam Blewett writes. Officials were keen to stress Britain isn’t arbitrating on whether Israel has actually breached international law. So therefore this is almost a halfway-move — a suspension of some licenses, but not a blanket export ban or a complete arms embargo. 
Selling that point: “Facing a conflict such as this, it is this government’s legal duty to review Britain’s export licenses. This is not a blanket ban. This is not an arms embargo,” Lammy said. It is still likely to anger Benjamin Netanyahu’s Israeli government. Lammy added that he was making the decision “more in sorrow than in anger” — and reiterated his commitment to Israel’s right to defend itself.
Scoop — Brits tend to back banning arms sales: 44 percent of Brits back suspending arms sales to Israel compared to 27 percent who oppose ending arms sales, polling carried out by JL Partners for the British Foreign Policy Group and shared with Playbook PM shows. 22 percent didn’t have a view either way. 
THAT’S NOT ALL THE ACTION EITHER: A little while after Playbook PM hits your inboxes, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper will rise to address in parliament for the first time since the riots that hit Britain last month. It’s a big moment — given responding to and tackling the causes of that disorder is close at the top of the list of problems facing the new government as term-time begins again. Stay tuned.
In news of other problems: Two more issues are sparking some internal disquiet today for the new government — and required responses from Keir Starmer himself this afternoon. 
Issue I: More Labour MPs are starting to go public with their concerns about the end of the universal winter fuel payments. Neil Duncan-Jordan — the new MP for Poole — declared that he has tabled a motion expressing his concern about how it “undermines the benefits of universalism”. He called for a delay … while Great Grimsby MP Melanie Onn tweeted that she is raising the concerns of her constituents over the issue with ministers. 
No U-turns incoming: In an interview with Matt Chorley for his new 5 Live show, Starmer said that he will continue to be “really tough on this”. “We’re elected to take tough decisions and bring about the change this country needs over five years,” he said. 
Good timing: More MPs might well speak up when Welfare Secretary Liz Kendall addresses a meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party this evening. 
Issue 2: Labour MP Jas Athwal’s ant and black-mold infested rental portfolio is also causing issues — and Starmer, in a pool clip with broadcasters while visiting a school, admitted it was “not good enough”. Athwal said Sunday he didn’t know about the conditions his tenants were facing in the homes he rents to them. 
But but but: Starmer rejected calls to strip the whip from the MP. Labour MP Rosie Duffield is among those pointing out that several Labour MPs lost the whip for … voting to scrap a Conservative government welfare policy. 
Starmer also … hit back at Tory leadership contender Kemi Badenoch after she claimed Labour is “clueless” in her leadership launch this morning — more from that below. Starmer said he isn’t up for taking lectures from anyone who served in the last government and “left the worst possible inheritance.”
With all that already going on … you won’t need Playbook PM to tell you it’s gonna be a busy week … month … and probably year. Brace, brace.
BATTLE FOR THE TORY SOUL: Two very different candidates for the Conservative leadership set out their stalls in Westminster — as the contest enters its next phase.
First up … was Kemi Badenoch, who spoke without reading from notes for half an hour or so at the Institute for Engineering and Technology this morning. Watching hacks and activists were plied with teas, coffees and smoothies, while a cluster of supportive MPs had a pre-match huddle before taking their seats in the front row.
Guest stars: The former trade secretary was introduced by Tory grandee Francis Maude — who had already endorsed her — and then by former Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho, who declared her backing for Kemi.
Their case for Kemi: The argument made by her supporters — and by a predictably glitzy video before her speech — was that desperate times for the party call for a unique kind of candidate and leader to win again. “Kemi is a one-off,” Maude said, while a gushing Coutinho said her preferred candidate “isn’t like anyone else.” 
Kemi’s case for herself: “We talked right but governed left,” Badenoch said — happily ripping into the record of the previous Tory government (that she served in). She hit all the otherwise usual beats: smaller government … cutting migration … the importance of the family … free speech … and winning the youth back as she tried to paint herself as a plain-speaking realist that can change her party for the better. 
And then it got a little more interesting: After a speech full of general vision rather than policy specifics Badenoch, in answer to a few questions from journalists, deliberately contrasted her approach to her rivals. On migration, she said that “something is wrong with the system. People who are throwing out numbers and saying they will leave the ECHR and so on are giving you easy answers.”
Which is obviously aimed at … Robert Jenrick and Tom Tugendhat, both of whom have called for net migration caps. Jenrick also backs leaving the ECHR, while Tugendhat has said he is willing to leave the convention if necessary. Both men are arguably Badenoch’s biggest rivals for the top job.
TEN MINUTES DOWN THE ROAD: Playbook PM then dashed over to the Old War Office — one of London’s plushest hotels — for James Cleverly’s launch. Teas, coffees and homemade cupcakes were served to an audience of a similar size to Badenoch’s launch as nondescript nightclub music played beforehand.
Guest stars: After a quick endorsement speech from Shivani Raja — the only Tory gain in the election — Team Cleverly unveiled their prize offering: Grant Shapps. The deposed former cabinet minister appeared as if out of nowhere and talked up his man’s “track record of delivery” in government.
Shapps is also a useful get … since his skills with spreadsheets are legendary in Westminster — and he will have a big role this week in trying to get Cleverly over the line in Wednesday’s vote. 
Cleverly’s case for himself: Cleverly’s speech was all unity and delivery. “We need a leader who can unite the party and I am the best placed to do that,” he argued. It was a different vibe from Badenoch’s argument for deep change and “renewal” within the party.
He also confirmed … that he will resurrect the Rwanda policy, by using his “contacts” with the Rwanda government to bring back the deal. As expected, he promised to ditch stamp duty too — and promised to raise defense spending to 3 percent of GDP in a speech that was more policy-focused than Badenoch’s.
But but but … like Badenoch, he indirectly hit out at other Tory candidates for pledging to leave the ECHR — which he described as one of the “shorthand answers” and “quick fixes” that politicians often reach for.
Shout-out: Cleverly also took questions from pretty much every hack at his speech, though Playbook PM had to dart away early. Something for government ministers and other Tory candidates to observe.
AS FOR THE OTHER CANDIDATES: Robert Jenrick summoned a big turnout of political editors for a breakfast at the Old Queen Street Cafe — though they (mostly) spurned the offer of Bloody Marys and Bucks Fizz at 8 a.m.
Looking ahead to Wednesday and beyond: Jenrick’s team are confident they will have the 40 or 41 MP backers they need to get through to the final two, and are keen to point out the ones who aren’t just on the immigration-focused right. Shadow Justice Secretary Edward Argar, who backed Sajid Javid for leader in 2019 and Liz Truss in 2022, is joining Jenrick’s campaign team. He will have a big role in whipping fellow MPs, Playbook’s Dan Bloom texts in to add.
On Planet Priti: Patel’s team are touting the endorsement of Robert Price — the chair of the Tory association in Great Yarmouth, where Reform’s Rupert Lowe won in July. Otherwise Patel has been spending her day — and will do the same tomorrow — meeting MPs to try and ensure she gets over the line Wednesday, and she’ll host a private dinner for the convinced and unconvinced this evening. 
And if you want to know what the public thinks of all the candidates … More in Common carried out focus grouping on the candidates, the results of which you can read here. The TLDR is that the public mostly don’t have a clue who they are.
UNHAPPY BIRTHDAY: Keir Starmer’s top team forgot to wish him a happy birthday this morning, the PM’s spokesperson told hacks earlier. His team have since corrected the error.
Unhappy birthday II: In his interview with Matt Chorley on 5 Live, Starmer also confirmed he didn’t get Oasis tickets as he was busy meeting the king at the weekend.
Happy (?) birthday: Chorley’s interview also revealed that the Starmers are getting a new Siberian kitty.
NOT SO INDEPENDENT: The five independent MPs elected in July — including Jeremy Corbyn — have formed an “Independent Alliance” parliamentary group aimed at getting them more speaking time in the Commons. However, none of the currently independent MPs kicked out of Labour for voting to scrap the two-child benefit cap are joining the independent alliance just yet.
Not a fan: At her leadership launch this morning, Badenoch said she was much more worried about the independents than she is by Reform’s small band of MPs — accusing them of having won “on the back of sectarian Islamist politics”. Expect some push back from the MPs involved soon.
WHAT REFORM UK WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Bolsover District Council’s Tory group leader Carol Wood defected to Reform, the party announced this morning … and Sky News’ Mark Kleinman heard from Nigel Farage that the Reform leader is planning a fundraising drive to raise millions of pounds this week — starting with attending a fundraising event hosted by ex-Neighbors actress Holly Candy.
FACING JAIL: Lucy Connolly, the wife of a Tory councillor in Northamptonshire, pleaded guilty to writing a social media post “intending to stir up racial hatred” and now faces a jail sentence. She tweeted, on the day of the Southport killings, calling for hotels housing asylum seekers to be set on fire (as some then were.) More here from the BBC.
IN THE OTHER LEADERSHIP RACE: A series of Scottish hacks found themselves featured in Scottish Tory leadership candidate Murdo Fraser’s campaign video.
IN ISRAEL: A labor court ruled Israel’s general strike — called after the deaths of six hostages in Gaza — must end as thousands of protestors marched to demand an immediate hostage deal. Roads were blocked by activists while businesses, banks and schools also faced disruption. Multiple people have been arrested as protests are also planned outside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s residence — the BBC has a liveblog.
From Washington: U.S. President Joe Biden said he didn’t think Netanyahu was doing enough to secure a hostage deal but America was “very close” to presenting a final proposal to release hostages held by Hamas. “Hope springs eternal,” Biden said when asked if the deal would be successful.
Meanwhile in Gaza: Medics are conducting a second day of polio vaccinations for children in the enclave as more than 80,000 were vaccinated. Reuters has more.
IN GERMANY: Chancellor Olaf Scholz urged mainstream parties not to lend support to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and block it from governing after it won a big victory in the eastern state of Thuringia Sunday and came second in Saxony. My colleague Nette Nöstlinger has five takeaways from the elections, including how the AfD presented itself as a people’s party.
UKRAINE UPDATE: Russia launched more than 20 missiles at Ukrainian capital Kyiv as children started the first day of the new school term. Ukraine’s air force said it destroyed 22 out of the 35 cruise ballistic missiles and 20 of the 23 attack drones launched by Moscow. More from the Telegraph.
IN TAIWAN: President Lai Ching-te said China should take back land from Russia if the Chinese Communist Party believes it has a territorial claim to Taiwan, highlighting how Beijing lost land to Russia in the same period. The Guardian has a writeup.
**A message from Lloyds Banking Group: The reality is that there is a chronic lack of genuinely affordable housing in the UK, with around 1.5 million households on social housing waiting lists across Scotland, England and Wales. Delivering more social homes will be fundamental to meeting this challenge, helping improve the life chances of millions of people currently living in insecure housing. That’s why we’re calling for one million more homes at social rent over the next decade.
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LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.) leads on the government’s decision to scrap single headline Ofsted grades … BBC News at Six focuses on the continued sentencing for those involved with rioting over the summer … Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) leads on the situation in Gaza and the U.K.’s arms exports to Israel.
Tom Swarbrick at Drive (LBC, until 6 p.m.): Former Labour adviser Scarlett Mccgwire (5.05 p.m.).
Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, until 7 p.m.): Labour MP Joe Morris … Shadow Veterans’ Minister Andrew Bowie … Tory peer Tony Sewell.
News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): Israeli pollster Mitchell Barak (5.30 p.m.) … former Chief Inspector of Ofsted Amanda Spielman (5.45 p.m.).
The News Agents (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): Former Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi.
Tonight With Andrew Marr (LBC, 6 p.m.): Former Defense Secretary Grant Shapps (6 p.m.) … former FCDO Permanent Under-Secretary Simon McDonald (6.40 p.m.).
Dewbs and Co (GB News, 6 p.m.): Former Tory PPC Alex Deane.
GBN Tonight (GB News, 7 p.m.): Labour MP Graham Stringer … Tory MP James Wild … Labour adviser Matthew Torbitt.
Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge (Sky News, 7 p.m.): Tory MP David Davis … Reform UK Deputy Leader Richard Tice … Labour Together CEO Jonathan Ashworth.
Cross Question with Simon Marks (LBC, 8 p.m.): Employment Minister Alison McGovern … Shadow Housing Minister David Simmonds … New European columnist Bonnie Greer.
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s State of the Nation (GB News, 8 p.m.): Former Tory SpAd Henry Newman.
Newsnight (BBC 2, 10.30 p.m.): Shadow Commons Leader Chris Philp … former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng … former Labour MP Thangam Debbonaire.
TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT: Jack Surfleet.
REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): PoliticsHome’s Alain Tolhurst and the Financial Times’ Lucy Fisher … Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): The Sun’s Jack Elsom and the New Statesman’s Rachel Cunliffe.
GREEN TORIES: The Conservative Environment Network have a reception with Octopus Energy, at the Old Queen Street Cafe in Westminster. Former Environment Minister Graham Stuart is speaking. Invites needed.
DRINKS WITH THE YIMBYS: The Labour YIMBY group hosts a parliamentary reception with MP Chris Curtis at 7 p.m. (register here).
PARLIAMENT: Treasury questions and the railway public ownership bill in the Commons … and a debate on banning smoking in public places in the Lords.
TORY LEADERSHIP: Tom Tugendhat’s leadership launch … and a private hustings for MPs only.
UP IN SCOTLAND: Scottish Finance Secretary Shona Robison to set out hundreds of millions of pounds in cuts to public services.
PACKED LUNCH OR PALACE LUNCH: Subject to change, here are the lunch menus on the estate tomorrow: Bellamy’s: jerk pork with rice and peas; roasted balsamic tomato and red onion on focaccia with melted vegan mozzarella; steamed paprika cod with potato and pepper bravas … The Debate: Baked Malaysian lemon grass and ginger salmon with peanut satay vegetables and noodles; jerk pork with rice and peas; Turkish baked portobello shakshuka with halloumi.
WHAT I’VE BEEN READING: George Eaton from the New Statesman reckons we should expect more smoking crackdown-style policies from the Starmer government, which is part of what Eaton terms the “preventative state” — policies aimed at shifting health policy away from treating sickness and toward prevention.
ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: Japan surrendered unconditionally on this day in 1945, bringing to an end the Second World War.
JOBS JOBS JOBS: The Commons’ committees team are hiring for someone to help run social media and web content for committees. More details here.
WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Sam Blewett.
THANKS TO: My editor Matt Honeycombe-Foster, reporter Noah Keate and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.
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